Monday, October 25, 2010

How Long Should Weave Stay In




After six weeks of heavy purchases of risky assets, the market takes a break this week to consolidate the increases recorded.

In the stock market stands the German Dax index, which continued as a new market with high relative strength. Retrieve The Italian Stock Exchange in the wake of the good performance of the banking sector.

remains little rough but the American market, while the Japanese remain without food for relief. Also stop emerging markets in the week except Russia. It is confirmed however very tonic the Turkish stock index.

Among the European sector, the largest increases during the week were the auto sector, the beverage and chemical industries, while the largest declines were recorded in the securities pharmaceutical, media and telecommunications. In the forex market, the euro continues to signal its strength, especially to Swiss Franc and British Pound. Weak in general commodities, with gold and precious divert after weeks of increases. But the outlook remains for, as a result of demand from emerging countries in the coming months, and in some cases, the imbalance between demand and production, but the weakening of global production in the fourth quarter could act as a brake on prices.

The markets are waiting for the FOMC on 3 November in which the maneuver will be clearer that the Fed intends to take to combat a possible economic slowdown and deflation threat. If the Fed declared that it would continue its macro-economic policy objective of price stability and full employment, then, the assets and riskier high-yield bonds would be favored by investors.
Chart Baltic Dry Index

Monday, October 18, 2010

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week dominated by Ben Bernanke's speech at the Boston Fed on maneuvers that the U.S. central bank will do to combat any deflationary risks. The market remains uncertain unable to predict the risk you will face in coming years if a period of deflation or inflation. The rally in Treasuries linked to inflation shows that the Fed will attempt to maneuver through the next quantitative easing, to increase inflation. The increase in liquidity being implemented through the purchase of government bonds is intended to implement an expansionary monetary policy aimed at sustaining growth economy. The 'wealth effect "will be generated first in the financial markets with the hopes of inducing then to stimulate consumption and investment in the real economy. These possible moves have pushed the accelerator in the equity markets last week, but attention to the possible effect on the bond, especially on longer securities scadenza.La Wednesday session, in particular, has seen many major indices to break resistance, an example rupture of the share Dax 6300. The index of China is ready to break the resistance that has stuck since mid last year. For the currency market the dollar continues to depreciate: movement seems to now confirm that the Member United will continue to weaken the dollar against the currencies of the rest of the world. Pound remains stable. Still strong raw materials, not only the precious metals but also the sector of industrial waste. Worth noting is the trend of the gold price hit a record $ 1,381 an ounce before correcting, the trend of appreciation was supported by the possibility of a sharp increase in inflationary expectations. The oil maintains its upward movement, driven by the depreciation of the dollar but also by expectations of strong demand from emerging countries.

Monday, October 11, 2010

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During the week, continuing their movement Revaluation of all markets pushed upward by the interventions scored by central banks to support economic growth. This has reduced the downside risk of the market, increasing the potential short-term bullish, despite the macroeconomic data still show a certain weakness (Adp estimate showed in the loss of 39,000 jobs in September in america disappointing forecasts Analysts were expecting instead the creation of 20,000 jobs). This week also the rise of oil and the widespread of all commodities has pushed upwards all the rich markets of raw materials. For some good emerging markets (Korea, India, Malaysia, Turkey) that mark new highs period, while Brazil is close to the highs. In the week just closed the upward movement has also involved the stock of the Old Continent, confirming the Dax as a market with better technology and trend setting. Very important for the pursuit of the trend break of resistance at 6300 points. Among the sector very well in Europe, the automotive, chemical, and basic material remains in the queue instead of the banking, insurance and utilities.

In currencies, the euro continued to rally the dollar and pound, approaching the long bearish trendline. The strength of the euro is undermining European investor increases for raw materials and bond bullish trend is emerging where visible in the attached graph.

Monday, October 4, 2010

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The week just ended was marked by two main themes: the first are reinforced concerns about debt sustainability in the Euro (Portugal, Spain and especially Ireland), the other good news stemming from the U.S. which shows a positive situation (the new applications for unemployment benefits last week fell to 453,000 units, far exceeding the forecasts of analysts who had expected a smaller drop, to 458,000 units, better also expected gross domestic product, which final reading for the second quarter pointed to an increase of 1, 7% higher than the consensus that it was a confirmation of the preliminary data, 1.6%, the Chicago PMI index in September rose to 60.4 points from 56.7 the month earlier, surprising analysts who had expected a decline to 56 points).

This week's concerns about sovereign debt in the euro do not seem to counter the strengthening of the euro, recovering ground to the overall quality of the currencies.

Concerns however were felt sull'azionario European (the worst since he scored Spain with -2.83% -2.11% France). Well instead of the stock of developing countries with the strong performance of Brazil +3.82% followed by South Africa and Russia with 2.23% and 2.11% dragged upward by the price of crude oil.

With regard to the sector for the euro area to report a greater force in the automotive and chemical and industrial, while the worst are the Insurance and Banking sector finally Utilities.

Oil and Gold Bund in the short side.